ETFC Huge Breakout

Rising resistance at 1.70, next major resistance at 2.

Bear trap

Everything corrected, bullish trend ensues. I was wrong this was another bear trap. will post some charts later.

Change of direction

A reasonable pullback will continue, we broke down resistance and ended around the second support of 980 area, I think we could possibly test 950 - 890 range before a real rebound so should take your profit as soon as possible and either hold on to your cash or load on some hedges like FAZ, EDZ, SRS, SPY, BGZ. Vix broke out of the downward slope resistance, and closed above it, note this is the first time VIX decisively closed above that line so could signal some significant rebound in the VIX, well nothing is a sure thing but let the market tell us whats going to happen.


A breach through the 31-32 range would be devastating for the market. Note the huge white candle close above the the downward resistance in almost 6 month.

Check out multiple resistance coming our way(gap fill), looks like testing 950 or even lower could be possible.

A short term top seems to be forming for institution accumulation.

In my opinion if we do get a minor rebound tomorrow or late this week, is time to built some short positions and let go of your longs.

Short term SPX action

So our target right now is move back to the main channel that was in play here, since we broke down to the main support down here at 992 area we are forming a ascending triangle and looking to break the overhead resistance, if this fails however we are looking at retest the 992 then possibly 980 area.



The vix is still moving side ways, we are looking at retesting support area at 24.25 and if possible and breakdown of that area should sent the market soaring.

Let's look at some individual stocks

CNO


AEZS


MPG


MGM


KOG

FOMC day

Alot of anticipation in the market today as we opened higher and quickly changed to a sideways movement waiting for the word from the fed. The fed didn't really tell us much besides unchanged interest rate and positive economic outlook. We had a mini rally at the end of the day but quickly sold off to the mid day level and closed at 1005. Vix gapped down 2.08% today, and the dollar had a interesting rollercoaster movement as well.

Correction Begins?

more comprehensive review coming tomorrow, there just no way to tell what happens tomorrow with FED ready to speak about the outlook of the economy.

Channel Surf

SPX still in that channel I drew, fits perfectly almost. Again dips are getting bought so quickly, we were down through out most of the day but we never breached support. Buy dip/support strategy still in play here, upward trending channel is solid.

By the way REITS stocks are on the rise, this include FRE, FNM, MPG, CT these things should be interesting trade to keep an eye on for the rest of the week.

Weekly Summary

We gapped up friday due to positive unemployment numbers, SPX bounced off my suppport area and rallied pretty closed to the resistance here and dropped a bit at the close. The market is basically behaving like it should, going up -> consolidate -> more up. Buy dip area is still the upward supporting line.

Vix gapped lower in the morning, breaking that huge support but rallied back a bit as it tries to retest the support now the new resistance. Let's see if we can breach the resistance next week.

Interesting to note some long term buying signals are triggered today, as weekly EMA 13 crosses EMA 34.

Healthy Correction

Well today seems that we finally getting a major correction on the market but the indexes rallied back creating a U shape graph for the day. This really shows any kind of drop will be quickly bought off by bears that needs to cover their shorts. Do not get me wrong, we are way over due for a pull back and that is better for the rally to continue, right now we are still consolidating within the channel, and If we continue to hold around that area I see the market having the possibility of breaking to the upside. Techs seems like they are over bought and might be going on a downtrend, the sector I'm interested right now is commercial real estate, I'm not saying we are officially in a real estate rebound but seeing how the SRS has been hammered lately, we are getting better slowly, and now investors believe real estate can not go any worse.



Vix bounced off the trend line I drew yesterday but closed by again trying to break downwards, we shall see such if attempt is successful tomorrow.

Institution buying and selling pattern


Up more from last time, seems that institutions are buying into this rally slowly.


Here is some tickers to keep on the watchlist:HOV, MPG, FR, DCT, BZH

And the rally continues...

Another pretty choppy but quiet interesting day today, we opened lower but buyers quickly stepped in to push the prices higher, SPX hit a new high of 1007, mid day bears kinds stepped in trying to short the market, SPX tumbled lower near the 1000 support couple times, seems like we going to close below or around that level and at one point the 3 major indexes were all red but at the last few minutes short covering rallied us back to to close 1005.65.

The vix actually dropped a whopping 2% today, which is good news, just when the indicators are pointing upwards for a reversal today's drop negated the MACD bullish cross with a tiny little red histogram on the chart, and we closed above a huge support on the VIX around 24.90 area. If we were to break down, the next target I would look for would be above gap support around 24 area.



Take a look at the SPX 30 minute chart, here you can see we got a nice upward channel going from the last few days since our huge run up to 1000, we are slowly consolidating upwards with rising support. All the indicators shows short term consolidating phase, and I am watching for the MACD to make a higher high this week to break out of that negative divergence pattern that seems to be forming right now.

On the trading side, CAAS had a run up to intraday high of 7.95 testing that 8 dollar mark but sold off as the market start to drop in the mid day session but still manage to close with a new high around 7.80. I'm really watching this until they report their earnings on 8/12. AEZS continue to hold the 2.50-2.60 range, not much selling here until we get the results on the phase 3 trials. RINO busting out today with new high of 17.2o, I'm still keeping my target on it 20 dollars.

Some new tickers to keep in the watchlist today: YRCW, XRM, CAEI, SIFY, CPSL

Now lastly I want to do some analysis on DAN, the success of cash for clunkers really had a positive affect on our auto sector, DAN being a producer of auto parts has been rallying hard for the past few days, and its still going, I announced this when it was just under 3 around 2.98 area, and today it went as high as 4.91 but closed lower at 4.65. Now my short term target on this is 5.25, and say if we decisively close above that level say 5.50-5.75 I'm looking to go to 6 or 7.

Take a quick look at the chart here, you might think what a crazy run , is it too late to get in on it? Well what I think is that if we were given the right market condition, and SPX goes to test 1200 like I perdicted, DAN is definitely still cheap at this level, take a look at yesterday as it broke out of that rising channel, now the upper trend line serves as the new support along with the 20 day MA, and the rising trendline on the bottom serves as the secondary support. I think DAN is a buy support/dip set up.

1000 finally here

What a day, I was watching futures surging last night I knew something big was happening today, I posted on twitter that I was thinking we might gap up today, and look what we did broke 1000 finally on the SPX closing above 1000 for the first time since November of last year. Vix has been in the positive range for the most part of the day and but closed in red at the end. So my intermediate target of 1200 on the SPX should stand. And yes we are overbought and there is many divergences and gap to be filled, but the market just don't care, the fed is been injecting so much money they absolutely will not let the market to tank again. Crude also made a good run today going as high as 72+ and closing lower around 71. $USD got hammered today with another big drop, which is good for the market.

My new watchlist: AEZS(waiting for trial result, nice uptrend), CGA(massive run still have steam left), CAAS( China auto)chart break out, RINO( 20 dollars target), DAN, CNO, KONG(break out run), SWSI (oil play)

End the day with institutional buying chart.

Next week stock watchlist

AEZS Aeterna Zentaris Inc. this is a Canadian Pharmaceutical company looking to report its phase 3 clinical trial results anytime now. The price action on Friday indicates investors are guessing the results might come as early as Monday morning. I'm sure all of you remember how HGSI gaped up all the way from 2.50 to 12 because of their trial result, AEZS should do just the same if everything goes right. Plus this company got 5 other drugs in development and is holding tons of cash.

As you can see we got a nice upward channel going, AEZS closed on friday 2.62, gaining 21.8% next resistance will be at the 3 area. If pullback happens support will be around 2 dollars.

SKBI this china play is looking to pull higher, possible move back to 20+ area, just too much talk about this company, may have to be careful but right now things do look good, keep in mind its earning report comes out 8/15, and that should be better than the previous quarter.



Breaking out of that wedge should sent the price much higher, accumulation/distribution is still pointing up, MACD is slowly moving towards positive territory. We shall see how this one goes.

Some other tickers you should be aware of:
VITA, SRZ, CGA, KONG, RINO, CAEI