Tuesday, August 4, 2009

And the rally continues...

Another pretty choppy but quiet interesting day today, we opened lower but buyers quickly stepped in to push the prices higher, SPX hit a new high of 1007, mid day bears kinds stepped in trying to short the market, SPX tumbled lower near the 1000 support couple times, seems like we going to close below or around that level and at one point the 3 major indexes were all red but at the last few minutes short covering rallied us back to to close 1005.65.

The vix actually dropped a whopping 2% today, which is good news, just when the indicators are pointing upwards for a reversal today's drop negated the MACD bullish cross with a tiny little red histogram on the chart, and we closed above a huge support on the VIX around 24.90 area. If we were to break down, the next target I would look for would be above gap support around 24 area.



Take a look at the SPX 30 minute chart, here you can see we got a nice upward channel going from the last few days since our huge run up to 1000, we are slowly consolidating upwards with rising support. All the indicators shows short term consolidating phase, and I am watching for the MACD to make a higher high this week to break out of that negative divergence pattern that seems to be forming right now.

On the trading side, CAAS had a run up to intraday high of 7.95 testing that 8 dollar mark but sold off as the market start to drop in the mid day session but still manage to close with a new high around 7.80. I'm really watching this until they report their earnings on 8/12. AEZS continue to hold the 2.50-2.60 range, not much selling here until we get the results on the phase 3 trials. RINO busting out today with new high of 17.2o, I'm still keeping my target on it 20 dollars.

Some new tickers to keep in the watchlist today: YRCW, XRM, CAEI, SIFY, CPSL

Now lastly I want to do some analysis on DAN, the success of cash for clunkers really had a positive affect on our auto sector, DAN being a producer of auto parts has been rallying hard for the past few days, and its still going, I announced this when it was just under 3 around 2.98 area, and today it went as high as 4.91 but closed lower at 4.65. Now my short term target on this is 5.25, and say if we decisively close above that level say 5.50-5.75 I'm looking to go to 6 or 7.

Take a quick look at the chart here, you might think what a crazy run , is it too late to get in on it? Well what I think is that if we were given the right market condition, and SPX goes to test 1200 like I perdicted, DAN is definitely still cheap at this level, take a look at yesterday as it broke out of that rising channel, now the upper trend line serves as the new support along with the 20 day MA, and the rising trendline on the bottom serves as the secondary support. I think DAN is a buy support/dip set up.

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